A new Bloomberg report featuring an analysis of Nigeria’s stock market and foreign investment climate concludes that a loss for President Goodluck Jonathan at Saturday’s presidential polls may be necessary to stimulate the economy.

The report provides a sobering overview of the present state of the market:

“Since rising to a five-year high in July, Nigeria’s benchmark stock index has plummeted 30 percent and is now only 11 percent higher than when Jonathan took office in May 2010.

“Stocks in South Africa and Kenya rallied 90 percent in the period, while those in Zambia and Ghana more than doubled.

“The naira fell to a record in February, and domestic government bond yields of almost 16 percent are the highest among 31 emerging markets monitored by Bloomberg indexes.”

The report details interactions with different stockbrokers and investors, many of whom are of the view that a new government will be needed to spark investor confidence.

A particularly instructive response from Holger Siebrecht who works with Bolton-based Acadian Assets Management hints at an economy boost if General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress wins a closely fought election.

“We think the market may welcome a win by General Buhari,” Siebrecht, who helps oversee $360 million of emerging-market debt at Acadian, said in an e-mailed response to questions on Tuesday by Bloomberg.

“Buhari is likely to be more effective than Jonathan” at tackling corruption and Boko Haram, and managing the government’s finances amid falling earnings from oil, he said.

The report continued on a similar note, quoting responses from other players in Nigeria’s stock market. It ended thus:

“Nigerian stocks trade at 7.9 times forward earnings, the lowest level after Zimbabwe among African bourses tracked by Bloomberg. They will probably rally whoever wins the election, but will be more buoyant if Jonathan is voted out, according to Lanre Buluro, head of research at Lagos-based Primera Africa.”

“If Buhari comes in we believe the rally will be much more sustained,” said Buluro. “It would be a breath of fresh air. The country’s been ruled by the same party for 16 years.”

With just 24 hours to the presidential election, it is certain that this is not the kind of news that the People’s Democratic Party and Aso Rock want to hear.