It will be weeks, perhaps months, before the political parties conclude their post elections analyses: What happened, how and why. But we can state for sure that success does not just happen; success is a product of intuition, intellect and quality actions. The combined effects determine private and public developments and form the basis of the recent victory of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and its flag-bearer, Muhammadu Buhari, against the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the flag-bearer, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan.
Many PDP stalwarts doubt the fact that the party is over, despite Mr. President saying so.
After being in power for 16 years, electoral victory was taken as given without taking into account the high duty that went with it. That is one lesson APC must bear in mind. Indeed, success and failure evolve over time. Again, there is karma that predates present time. But then events can mature or retard a person suddenly depending on the mindset one brings to bear, and so President Jonathan matured in the aftermath of March 28 election, and deserves respect despite his rejection at the polls and the state of nation he is leaving behind.
In three previous attempts,Buhari lost the polls and went to court and lost there too.
His victory this time will stir ripple effects in Saturday’s states’ assembly elections. For one, President Jonathan will not deploy security forces to help anyone and there is the infamous band wagon effect arising from the March 28, election.
What are the factors that led to Buhari’s victory at the 2015 Presidential race?.
The first is the merger of opposition forces and second is introduction of the card reader. The merger formed the basis for balance of power.
Buhari entered the arena in 2003 and ignited high winds that observers tagged Hurricane Buhari but repeatedly, it fizzled out with the dramatic 2011 race after which the general wept for Nigeria and called it quit.
For Prince Tony Momoh,who became chairman, Congress for Progressive Change, CPC, the matter was not over. He called his then Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN counterpart, Chief Bisi Akande early 2013 and asked him to reach out to Asiwaju, Senator Bola Tinubu, the ACN leader and tell him that PDP can be beaten and a merger of the opposition parties is the secret.
Momoh had called from a Cairo hospital in Egypt where he went for knee surgery – the aftermath of armed robbers’ gun shots in the Nineties and poor management locally. He also faced eyes surgery but his physical discomforts were less than the pains of watching Nigeria continuous slipping for 13 years in the name of nascent democracy.
Akande called back two weeks later to say his party had accepted the merger idea. North and West alliance was not the idea; rather the sponsors wanted a pan-Nigerian movement. Thus, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, first Abia State governor and chairman, All Nigeria People Party, ANPP and Owelle Rochas Okorocha, Imo State governor and chieftain of All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA responded positively. Rochas lacked the full backing of APGA. Therefore, the alliance was mainly of three parties – ANPP, ACN and CPC.
The general feeling and which the PDP bought was that the merger would fail. After all, similar efforts in the past failed. Indeed, many dismissed the merger as a marriage of strange bedfellows, noting that the North and the South-West have never and may never join hands politically. This notion heightened when it was rumoured that Tinubu was insisting on running with Buhari – making it a Moslem-Moslem ticket.
In the words of Akande: “The notion that the South-west and the North do not align politically may be historical but it is a myth that is now broken. Perhaps what both sides wanted differed much but this time what unite us are much more than what separate us. One thing for sure; everyone made concessions and that is the beauty of democracy – negotiate and make everyone happy.”
On the part of Onu: “There is a sustained campaign that Igbos belong over 90 per cent to PDP. Nothing could be further from the truth. The propaganda that was brought into Elections 2015 is unprecedented. Now, we have serious work to integrate the nation because Nigeria is one,”
For Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, who, joined the opposition and was called a desperate man reaching for straw when there is nothing better to grab, “I contested governorship primary and won but some power brokers said no way! At the end of the day, justice prevailed. Rivers State was in wreckage. I asked everyone to put the past behind, join hands with me so that together we salvage the state but some politicians totally oppose.
“When I showed interest in the chairmanship of the Governors Forum, campaigns mounted on my colleagues. How can you allow a South-south governor be your chairman when the president also hails from the region? Later, the governors rejected the Sovereign National Fund. The Forum; not Governor Amaechi, sued the president. It wasn’t personal. Plots to remove me and cause chaos in Rivers State were countless.
“This is time for national healing and not counting wrongs but the fact is that when I am put in a difficult corner, I react and I don’t know how many people won’t. My works speak for me. Anyone who denies that Rivers State is not ten times better than I met it lives in denial. Secondly equity is vital to me,” Amaechi summed.
While debunking the notion that Buhari hates Ndigbo, Okorocha said: “Our opponents mounted that propaganda to corner the South-East and South-South zones. Now, the president is not going to use force to coerce voters. Come Saturday April 11th the world will see where public sympathy lies in places like Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Edo and Ebonyi states. That South-south and South-East APC senatorial candidates and House of Representatives did not win one seat was due to political brigandage. Despite clear flaws, Nigerians want peace and that is why we are taking things easy. Some people want crises because that is where they prosper and excel but APC is more matured than that.”
For Chief Akande, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu turned the tide against PDP. “If he tells you yes then you can count on his not looking back unless the exercise is turning futile in which case he changes course because any right-thinking person would see the futility.
“We also owe a lot to Prince Momoh because he started the merger. No political party would have shaken off the PDP. Even with the internal decimation, PDP was not easy to beat.
“Finally is the man of history. I call him man of history because at his age and after three failed attempts, you have to have incredible faith to try again. It is true the merger made the difference but Buhari is the most charismatic Nigerian politician. He has no money; you cannot buy him nor would he think of buying anyone. Leadership is about integrity. When you have men of conviction who want to make a difference, you have change-agents and Nigeria needs to be born again.”
Indeed, all these efforts and more paved the road to the emergence of Buhari as president elect and allowed Nigerians have a fresh breath of air at the National level.
- Anyamele, journalist & Ogbamosa, journalist and lawyer wrote from Lagos.
