AU expressing deep concern

The Peace and Security Council (PSC) is meeting on 24 March to discuss the situation in Abyei. This follows a press statement on 16 February 2015 by AU Commission chairperson Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma expressing ‘deep concern’ over the latest series of incidents in Abyei. This included killings, abductions and livestock raids, threatening the wellbeing of residents and the peace and political processes. The AU called on Khartoum and Juba to speed up the establishment of the Abyei police service and other administrative bodies, in accordance with the agreement the two parties had reached in June 2011. The agreement was aimed at preventing the occurrence of similar security incidents and responding to them in a timely manner. The statement further urged the early convening of the Abyei Joint Oversight Committee.

The AU called on Khartoum and Juba to speed up the establishment of the Abyei police service and other administrative bodies

Increasing incidents of violence and deepening tension

Demonstrating the deteriorating security situation in the area, on 2 March 2015 the UN reported that more than 100 armed men from the Misseriya community had killed four members of the Ngok Dinka, wounded three and abducted eight children in Marialachak, a village in southern Abyei. The attack displaced hundreds of residents from the village and surrounding areas. The UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) repulsed and chased the raiders, killing three and capturing four of them. The past two months have witnessed three similar incidents between the two major groups in the Abyei area – the nomadic Arab herders of the Misseriya and the Ngok Dinka.

During a press conference following the attack, the spokesperson for South Sudan’s ministry of foreign affairs, Mawien Makol, condemned the attack and said that the Misseriya were taking advantage of the presence of the Sudanese army in the area to ‘loot and kill’. The 30 January report of the UN secretary general on the situation in Abyei stated that Khartoum continued to maintain between 120 and 150 oil police personnel in northern Abyei, violating the June 2011 agreement and multiple UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.

Tension between the two groups also rose in mid-March 2015 following reports of the ongoing recruitment of the Misseriya militia on the Sudanese side of the border. Members of the Ngok Dinka community say that they are living in fear and insecurity, anticipating imminent attacks.

The talks are in deadlock. The lack of meaningful political dialogue coupled with the security incidents has increased inter-communal tensions. As the security situation deteriorates and the war of words continues between political and tribal leaders on both sides, the people of Abyei continue to suffer due to the lack of an effective administration providing basic services and state protection.

Inflammatory statements ahead of Sudanese elections

Strong inflammatory statements from both sides dominate discussions and media reports on the situation in Abyei. The increasing tension and mistrust between the two dominant groups claiming competing rights over the area, and the civil war in South Sudan further complicate the situation. The recent escalation in fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLM-North) has also hampered peace efforts.

In March 2015 political and tribal leaders of the Misseriya called for the use of force to take over Abyei, citing an administrative vacuum in the area and the ongoing conflict in South Sudan. The leaders, who are becoming increasingly vocal in Khartoum ahead of the Sudanese elections scheduled for next month, have urged the Sudanese army to take control of the disputed region to bring order and stability.

Members of the Ngok Dinka community say that they are living in fear and insecurity, anticipating imminent attacks

The inflammatory call was followed by a speech made by President Omar al-Bashir near the region as part of his election campaign representing the National Congress Party. In one of his campaign speeches in Fula, 100 km from Abyei, al-Bashir said Abyei was Sudanese territory and Khartoum would not abandon its claim to it.

Southward migration of Misseriya nomads

According to the UN report, the southwards migration by the Arab Misseriya nomads to Abyei is one of the causes of the rising tension. The UN noted that November and December 2014 saw an increase in the unjustified acceleration of the southwards migration despite considerable water and pasture being available in other parts of northern Abyei.

Last month, the South Sudanese ambassador to the UN protested against a Sudanese statement to the effect that Abyei is Sudanese territory until a referendum to decide its future is held. Meanwhile, announcing its plan to re-divide South Sudan’s 10 states into 21, the SPLM In-Opposition, led by Riek Machar, recently asserted that Abyei is a South Sudanese state.

According to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, Abyei was supposed to conduct a referendum alongside South Sudan's 2011 secession vote. The delay in the vote and political and security instability in the region resulted in a unilateral referendum in Abyei organised by the Ngok Dinka in November 2013, which saw 99.9% of voters wanting to join South Sudan. The vote was boycotted and the results rejected by the Misseriya community. Neither the Sudanese nor the South Sudanese government recognised its outcome.

Call for a peace and reconciliation conference

The biggest group in the region, the Ngok Dinka, continues to favour joining South Sudan. However, Sudan says that the Khartoum-allied Misseriya community, who move around Abyei to find pasture for their cattle and spend up to half the year in the region, should be eligible to vote.

In mid-March a paramount chief of the Ngok Dinka, Bulabek Deng Kuol, announced that preparations were underway to organise a peace and reconciliation conference between the Misseriya and Ngok Dinka. This followed a call from a Ngok Dinka leader in Khartoum, Zachariah Atem, for such a conference between the two tribes. In February, Sudan’s First Vice President Bakri Hassan Saleh also announced Khartoum’s plan to support development projects and peace efforts in Abyei.

The vacuum in public administration and rule of law requires a solution. The peace talks would need to start soon to ease tensions on the ground and bring hope of a political and legal solution to the Abyei question. The provision of basic services, including policing and justice, should be given priority.

Strong inflammatory statements from both sides dominate discussions and media reports on the situation in Abyei

Civil war in South Sudan attracting attention away from Abyei

AU efforts to resolve the Abyei issue are channelled through the AU High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) on Sudan and South Sudan. The panel is mandated with initiating and facilitating talks on issues surrounding South Sudan’s independence and disputes over the contested border, oil, security, citizenship and assets. In September 2014 the panel had an informal interactive dialogue with members of the UNSC. AUHIP chair Thabo Mbeki noted the need for a strategy on Abyei and highlighted that the civil war in South Sudan was distracting Juba from focusing on the Abyei issue. He also noted Juba’s concern about the placement of the centre line of the Safe Demilitarised Border Zone between Sudan and South Sudan.

UNISFA, which is mandated with protecting civilians, monitoring the flashpoint border area and facilitating the delivery of humanitarian aid, is an all-Ethiopian force. Ethiopia still commands the trust and respect of Juba and Khartoum.

On 29 May 2013, the UNSC increased UNISFA’s military strength and tasked it with supporting the operational activities of the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism, established by the Sudan–South Sudan Cooperation Agreement.

UN concern of the fragile situation in Abyei

At the beginning of 2015 UNISFA’s military component stood at 4 036 (96 military observers, 95 staff officers and 3 845 troops) of an authorised strength of 5 326. In January 2015 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon appointed Haile Tilahun Gebremariam, an Ethiopian general, as the head of UNISFA. A month later the UNSC extended UNISFA’s mandate to 15 July 2015.

UNISFA is implementing a multifaceted conflict prevention and mitigation strategy to prevent and resolve clashes during the migration season and beyond. The strategy includes the establishment of a disengagement area between the Ngok Dinka and the Misseriya, the deployment of troops in potential flashpoint areas, deterrence patrols, aerial monitoring and frequent engagement with local communities and authorities in Sudan and South Sudan.

Following its latest meeting on Abyei, the UNSC expressed its concern about the fragility of the security situation in the region and the stalled efforts to demilitarise the border zone. The UNSC urged Sudan and South Sudan to resolve immediately the deadlock over Abyei and establish a joint administration and police force. The council discouraged any unilateral action by either country and urged both to continue working towards a political solution.

Major issues for the PSC

A major issue for the PSC is how to de-escalate the increasing violence and mounting tension in Abyei. In this regard, one issue for the AU is finding ways in which it can support and facilitate the call by community leaders for a peace and reconciliation conference between the Ngok Dinka and the Misseriya.

Another issue is how to achieve the effective and full implementation of the agreements that the two countries have signed over Abyei, including on the withdrawal of security forces and establishment of the Abyei administration.

Options for the PSC

The PSC could request the AU Commission to initiate, through the AUHIP, a process that supports and facilitates the launching of a dialogue on peace and reconciliation between the two communities.

The council could call on Sudan and South Sudan to provide full support for and cooperate with UNISFA in the implementation of its mandate to ensure stability and peace in Abyei.

It could also call on the two countries to refrain from actions and statements that exacerbate tension in Abyei and to respect the terms of the agreement, including the establishment of the various elements of the Abyei administration.

The PSC could continue calling for thepermanent withdrawal of all unauthorised Sudanese and South Sudanese forces from the area and the reactivation of the Joint Military Observer Committee and Joint Military Observer Teams.

Assessing the security situation in Abyei, the PSC could call for an adjustment to UNISFA’s mandate to enable the police component of the mission to engage in community protection committees.

credit link:  http://www.issafrica.org/pscreport/situation-analysis/increasing-tension-in-abyei-in-the-run-up-to-sudanese-elections

The article was first published by The Institute for Security Studies ( http://www.issafrica.org) and is republished with permission  granted to www.oasesnews.com