Options traders are over-estimating the chances of violence in Iraq disrupting immediate crude supplies from the country, according to BNP Paribas SA and Barclays Plc.

Call options to protect against oil-price gains next month exceed the cost of put contracts to hedge declines by 3 percentage points, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. The premium, known as a call skew, is the highest since August. BNP Paribas is advising investors to bet it won’t last and Barclays also anticipates a narrowing, without recommending the same trade.

While fighters from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant this month took Mosul, the nation’s second-largest city, and attacked Iraq’s biggest oil refinery, they’ve yet to hinder crude output. Oil Minister Abdul Kareem al-Luaibi said in an interview yesterday that exports will surge next month because the fighting hasn’t curbed production. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said the day before that it will cover any shortages should Iraq’s supply be disrupted.