On Saturday 10 December, 2016, the world woke up to the shocking news of The Gambia President, Yahya Jammeh, rejecting the result of the country’s Presidential election he earlier accepted. What could have necessitated this decision remains in the realm of speculations but may not be unconnected with the statement credited to Adama Barrow to the effect that his administration may look into the books of Jammeh who has been in power for about 22 years. How true this is remains to be seen. Events look to have moved fast since Jammeh made the announcement on state TV last Friday.
Aware the implication of this especially in a continent that has a history of sit tight leaders, several African Heads of State have moved in to forestall impending doom on the tiny West African country. On this list is Nigeria’s President, Muhammed Buhari.
Buhari’s visit to Banjul has raised some question here in Nigeria. Since he was sworn in as president in 2015, he has traveled out of the country on countless occasions to the chagrin of many Nigerians. Many Nigerians see most of his travels as needless and economically unbeneficial to his country especially as the recession has hit the country hard. Couldn’t Buhari has ordered his Minister of External Affairs, Geoffrey Onyeama , who has stayed at home more than the President himself to attend to brief the Gambian president of Nigerian official position? These and more are the issues raised about President Buhari’s visit to The Gambia.
First, let us make it clear that what is going on in The Gambia is purely political. Political issue, therefore, must be solved politically, not diplomatically. Why do we say this?
In a continent with a history of incumbent sitting tight and volatile to ethnic and religious conflicts, incumbents have the capacity to exploit the volatility in these states to hold on to power by promoting ethnic conflicts, if not full scale war. We witnessed this in 2008 in Kenya (which led to power sharing agreements between the two main factions) just as we also saw in Ivory Coast in 2012 (before French-led troops could restore order). These two events alone led to avoidable loss of lives and properties. Since it is a political issue, leaving such for diplomats may led to unpredictable series of events that may be beyond the control of those in the diplomatic circles themselves. Political problems often require political solutions!
Secondly, whether many people admit it or not, (West) Africa’s problems are often Nigeria’s problems. Buhari personally going to put pressure on Jammeh to obey the will of the may be the prudent measure to take at a time like this before things get out of hand. Now that the warnings are there, it will be easier to solve the problems that when they take other dimensions.
Many people will probably remember that when the Liberian civil war started, no one predicted it will spill quickly into Sierra Leone and Guinea. Nigeria did not understand the magnitude of what was happening till it was forced to hurriedly put together, with other members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), what is now known as ECOMOG. ECOMOG alone has cost Nigeria and Nigerians a lot in terms of human and material resources. The country would have been spared all these expenses, had it intervened earlier enough.
That also remind us, we think, had Nigeria intervened politically, earlier than the French by putting intense political pressure on Laurent Gbagbo, may be a lot of lives would have been saved in 2012!
In our opinion, Buhari’s visit to The Gambia at this state of the build-up to what could be a major crisis is timely and prudent. It can be the other way too!
Olalekan Waheed ADIGUN is a political analyst and independent political strategist for wide range of individuals, organisations and campaigns. He is based in Lagos, Nigeria. His write-ups can be viewed on his website http://olalekanadigun.com/ Tel: +2348136502040, +2347081901080
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When President Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia conceded defeat after the December 1, Presidential elections in that West African country of 1.9 million people, the gesture was widely hailed and described as an indication of great hope for democracy in Africa and particularly for The Gambia, which Jammeh had ruled with an iron fist for 22 years. That election was also perhaps the most important political development in The Gambia in 52 years – the first change of government through democratic elections. The winner of the Presidential election, Adama Barrow, was the product of a coalition of opposition parties who provided the platform for the people’s yearning for change. Adama Barrow (the British press should please stop referring to him condescendingly as a former Argos’ security guard!), became the symbol of the people’s hopes, and of freedom from Jammeh’s tyrannical rule that was benchmarked by its brutality, love of witchcraft and human rights abuses. Jammeh’s concession made it seem as if all his past sins would be forgiven.
But on December 9, he made a volte-face going on state television to say he could no longer accept the results of the election and that he had decided to annul the results. It is alleged that Jammeh may have resorted to this because of an alleged missing 365, 000 votes and the adjustment of the final results by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) which showed that Adama Barrow had won with less than 20, 000 votes, hence Jammeh cited “unacceptable errors” which had come to light. This, if of any consequence at all, seems contrived.
If Jammeh as candidate in the election has any grouse, the appropriate place to seek redress is in court, and the Gambian Constitution provides for a 10-day window within which to file a petition. That 10-day period of grace expires today. By annulling the election single-handedly without recourse to the courts (the promise to do so by his party, the APRC, is an after-thought), Jammeh is guilty of an assault on the sovereignty of the Gambian people. His conduct is objectionable and should be considered an act of high treason. Jammeh suffers from the delusion that his love of power and personal ambition is more important than the stability and progress of his country. The people’s will as confidently expressed on December 1 is supreme. Jammeh should be made to realize that he is just another citizen and that The Gambia is not his personal estate.
The African Union, ECOWAS and the UN Security Council as well as the international community in general have condemned the infamy that Jammeh is seeking to foist on his people. But the AU and ECOWAS should take the lead in coming to the rescue of The Gambian people. The long-term objective, in case Yahya Jammeh does not relent, is to invoke the Constitutive Acts and Principles of both bodies on democratic transition and thus “criminalize” any further attempt by Jammeh to violate the democratic process. We appreciate the fact that ECOWAS leaders: chairperson Ellen Johnson Sirleaf of Liberia, and the Presidents of Nigeria (Muhammadu Buhari), Sierra Leone (Ernest Bai Koroma), Ghana (John Dramani Mahama) and Guinea (Alpha Conde) are in fact meeting with President Jammeh today in Banjul. They will also meet with opposition coalition leaders. The primary task of that team should be to bring all parties concerned to the negotiating table, insist on the supremacy of the people’s will and advise Yahya Jammeh to obey the rule of law.
It is possible that he would refuse to listen. Before now, this Gambian anti-hero has shown a capacity to defy the international community. He once turned himself into a herbal doctor and claimed he had found a cure for HIV/AIDS. In 2013, he pulled his country out of the Commonwealth. He is also opposed to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Ironically, the current chief prosecutor of the ICC is a Gambian, Fatou Bensouda. Yahya Jammeh is also an incurable megalomaniac, given his love of titles: H.E. Sheikh Prof. Dr. Alhaji President Yahya AJJ Jammeh Babili Mansa. On many occasions, he wanted to be Chairman of the ECOWAS, but his colleague-Presidents always turned him down in favour of much junior Presidents who met him in office. For a while he shunned many international engagements, sending his Vice President instead. To be fair to him though, he is not as stupid as he is made to appear internationally and he has probably realized that the game is up. But could Yahya Jammeh be playing a game, to negotiate, to gain amnesty?
His relapse out of that moment of lucidity that saw him conceding defeat on December 2 may well have been caused not by his claim of “unacceptable errors”, but fear. The Gambian situation may end up providing special lessons in how triumphant opposition parties should manage victory in order not to provoke a succession crisis. Dictators in general are afraid of what will happen to them when they are no longer in power and hence, many of them hang on to office until they die or they are disgraced out. While the antidote to this is good governance, it is also pragmatic to situate certain responses within the context of post-election realities.
In The Gambia, the post-election situation has been poorly managed. Jammeh and Barrow have met only once since the election was won and lost. They are practically not on speaking terms. The opposition, apparently due to lack of knowledge and tact, has also been busy threatening to deal with Jammeh as soon as he hands over power. Fatoumata Jallow-Tambajang, who led the victorious coalition has been busy taunting Jammeh. She is a perfect illustration of how much damage reckless windbaggery can do to opposition politics.
Madame Fatoumata says Jammeh will be prosecuted. Gambia will rejoin the International Criminal Court and Jammeh will be sent to The Hague for trial. Jammeh says he’d like to retire to his farm in his native Kanilai, Madame says he will not be allowed to do so, because he has “bunkers and treasure” there and enough weapons to start an insurrection. He won’t even be allowed to go abroad. “He can’t leave. If he leaves, he’s going to escape us”, she says. And she adds: “we don’t trust him. The longer we leave him, the more possibilities he has to leave the country to escape the country and even do an insurgency…Senegal is very alert. Nobody trusts him…” She further referred to Jammeh’s wife as a “gold-digger” who should be put on trial and jailed. It is precisely this kind of reckless post-election rhetoric that threatens peaceful ruling-party-to-opposition-tra nsition in Africa. Fatoumata Jallow-Tambalang’s tactlessness has to be managed. She and Samsudeen Sarr should shut up, at least for now!
Yahya Jammeh’s response has just been as vengeful. He quickly promoted loyal officers in the military and got the military hierarchy to recant. He also sent soldiers onto the streets of Banjul and Serekunda and other parts of the country to subdue an already frightened populace. He had admitted the result of the Presidential election as the “will of Allah”, but now he is relying on his own will to protect and preserve himself. The early exposure of the mind of the opposition has driven Jammeh back into the trap of tyranny and unless the situation is well managed, we may have a serious crisis in The Gambia with a well-resourced dictator turned rebel. What is playing out in The Gambia right now is a two-way politics of vengeance, which leaves both the people and the governance process stranded. Getting the country out of that logjam should be the main remit of the ECOWAS mission.
The ECOWAS leaders visiting Banjul must engage The Gambian military hierarchy. Jammeh is in the process of using them to carry out another coup. His first coup was against Dawda Jawara, 22 years ago, the current effort is designed as a coup against the people and the opposition. And even if he does not get away with it, he is determined to plant enough problems that would make The Gambia impossible to govern after his exit. Right now, The Gambian military has lost its mind. Chief of Defence Staff General Ousman Badjie endorsed the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election and pledged loyalty to the people and the elected in-coming government, but after the bribery of military promotions, the same CDS started insisting on another election. A divided, psychopathic military is a serious problem to any country. We saw that in Guinea-Bissau and Mali. The ECOWAS team must make it clear to The Gambian military leaders that there will be no regional backing for any act of lunacy.
ECOWAS has its own problems. Oftentimes, ECOWAS leaders succumb to unnecessary compromises. They should not return from The Gambia with any unholy compromise. Yahya Jammeh lost the election on December 1. He boasted before then that any election in The Gambia is “rig-proof” and “fraud-proof”. In four previous elections, he won with a landslide. Now, all of a sudden, elections conducted under him are no longer “rig-proof”. He should pack out of the Presidential Villa and allow The Gambia to move on without him. He is the latest victim of coalition opposition politics in Africa. His defeat should send a clear message to the other sit-tight, royalist leaders across the continent. The long-term solution to the Yahya Jammeh problem should be the introduction of a Constitutional term limit for The Gambian Presidency to prevent Jammeh from ruling as he once claimed for “one billion years!”
Above all, Yahya Jammeh is a spoilsport. He jumped out of his moment of lucidity just when we were celebrating the good news from Ghana. John Mahama is Ghana’s first one-term democratically elected President since 1992, but he has been gallant in defeat and most gracious. There is no chance he will behave like Jammeh. He is educated. He has a good head. He is a thinker and a writer. He certainly has a brighter future ahead of him.
The Southern Kaduna crisis has been around for decades and I am yet to see a true solution to end this unfortunate situation. When I began reading the debate in the media recently, I was very intrigued to hear the views of many sides especially of the elite and youth from this particular area. But it seems to me that almost everyone is speaking either based on sentiments or as a result of outright ignorance of the actual situation.
Or else, those critical of Governor El-rufai will not blame him for “needlessly paying Fulani herdsmen compensation” without getting the real facts of the matter. A simple Google search would have guided their arguments and criticism of his Administration; since information has since emerged from ‘General Agwai’s report’ which confirmed that indeed it was the late Governor Yakowa that commenced this payment in good faith as compensation to the herdsmen for their lost cattle. It is important to note that General Martin Luther Agwai is a distinguished Nigerian who served the Military with distinction and who retired honorably, as such his reputation is in no doubt. He is also from Kaduna South, as was our late Governor Patrick Yakowa. This point is not intended to underscore the loss of lives or/and properties the People of Southern Kaduna might have suffered during the ensuing decades of conflicts but merely to set the record clear with regards to payment of compensation to Fulani Hersdmen by the Kaduna State Government.
Again If not, a ranking senator representing the people of this particular zone would not play politics with the lives of his own people by calling them to defend themselves knowing fully well that more bloodshed will be the only result since it is not ‘tooth picks’ they will carry and defend themselves with. By the way if this type of call was a solution, the 1992 Zangon Kataf religious crisis would have brought not only peace but also prosperity to the entire Kaduna South today.
More than two decades later, the unfortunate 1992 events still leave considerable scars in the entire Kaduna South. For example, I spoke to several contractors who supposedly should be working on Projects in Kaduna South but are now too scared and unwilling to resume developmental projects anywhere in these areas due to fears of attacks and reprisals between the divisive sides in the conflict.
The effects are numerous; for example, Traders divert historic trade routes depriving the villagers of their means of livelihood and affecting the booming commerce that this area is known for, family ties are torn apart as people migrate away to safer communities, local and foreign investors are unwilling to come in regardless of the untapped resources etc. and all of these lead to total economic and social meltdown in that area.
So then, let us comprehend how many more decades back a ‘1992 type’ solution today will set the good people of Kaduna South…
I am not exonerating Malam Nasir El-rufai because as Governor, the security of life and property of every one in Kaduna is his utmost responsibility. But if YOU are making a contribution on this issue and you are judging this matter solely on your perceptions of the man or based on your political affiliations or you are just guided on pure hatred for his person, then you will not be making any meaningful inputs toward a long lasting solution.
While we should hold the Governor responsible for safety of lives and property, we must be critical of our leaders through the lenses of objectivity and an unprecedented unity of purpose even if we are mostly always biased in our reasoning and critique.
Misunderstandings are always expected in heated conversations (similar to the ones I see between the El-rufai camp on the one side and the other camps on the other), but if real peace and the common man is what you fight for; then on this matter you will not be focused on defending Governor El-rufai, Senator Laah, or any one particular individual for that matter. Rather, you will demand proper accountability of responsibility from all of them as your leaders and push them to deliver on the People’s mandate, pure and simple.
I have no doubt that Governor El-rufai means well for the people of Kaduna South and believe he is committed to a long lasting peace and prosperity of the zone. But let us even assume that he does NOT mean well! Will bickering amongst yourselves get his attention or push him to fulfill his responsibilities?
There is a popular theological saying that “It is only when people truly change that their situation will change for the better”, so it is the hope of many spectators and well wishers of Kaduna South that all stakeholders will put aside their personal idiosyncrasies and ugly sentiments. The people must refuse to be used for once and come together in unison and with one voice, then by your sheer number you will force an end to this crisis. One can imagine this is the type of support and pressure that both the Governor and the Senator will prefer to get from their people in order for them to deliver on their promises. They certainly do not need your hypocritical lip service or praise songs.
Another saying goes, “The power of the people is so much stronger than the people in power”, BUT ONLY IF THE PEOPLE WORK UNCONDITIONALLY TOGETHER.
Mustapha Ramalan writes from Abuja
It is no longer news that the governor of Kogi state, Alhaji Yahaya Bello, who hitherto was seen in the political circle as providential, thus politically inept, a small fry, a greenhorn and a tenderfoot, has proven his critics wrong, proving himself to be not just a young kingmaker and a political juggernaut but also, a bulldozing gladiator and a force to be reckoned with in politics.
The past few weeks have seen this new “kid” in the block dazzling his critics, uprooting, disparaging and dismantling the structures of a renowned Nigerian’s south west political schemer and strategist of all time, Olushola Mimiko, a man dubbed as the Iroko of the south west politics.
The choice of the name Iroko to describe this strong political tactician may not be unconnected to an interesting characteristic of the tree, rot resistance. Iroko is very durable, and is resistant to both rot and insect attack. Indeed Olusegun Mimiko has from his days at the Labour party being a force to be reckoned with. He has been defiant to all political maneuvers aimed at getting rid of him and making him irrelevant; consequently, he has proven indefatigable and unbeatably impervious, a nightmare to politician’s foes. Haven demystified and deflated such credentials by this 41 years old unassuming politician, It is now proven that, political sagacity does not come with your long foray in political warfare but with brains, intelligence and zeal, attributes the Kogi state governor has displayed lately.
Following the young governor’s activities of late, it is apparently perceptible that Yahaya Bello is a very practical politician, who matches words with appropriate proportion of actions. Everywhere he went and everything he does, there is pragmatism in his approaches. While others who partook in the falling of the Iroko, either delegated responsibilities, or worked through proxies, or from the comfort of their offices at Abuja, Alhaji Yahaya Bello, was the GOC commanding the political infantries and combatants that wrecked the havoc to the core of the Iroko’s trunk.
He was on ground in Ondo state to garner support for Rotimi Akeredolu, moving from enclaves to enclaves. The most interesting and calculative tactical manover and moves he deployed was to identify with the sizable number of non-indigenes of Ondo state that formed a larger percentage of the voting population, having he had one-on-one contact with them, with the intent of capturing the core of their hearts.
His pragmatism can also be seen in many instances, one of such was demonstrated sometime last week when the young governor led security operatives to dislodge trailers that barricaded the Lokoja-Abuja road, causing heavy traffic logjam, due to a fracas between the Nigeria army operatives and tanker drivers. Entreaties were made by serving Generals in the army and very influential personalities which fell on deaf ears until the governor, upon the request of the warring trailer drivers arrived the scene. He didn’t leave the scene until around 11pm when all issues were resolved and all gridlocks removed and traffic restored.
Before his assumption to office, it was a truism that Kogi state civil service was one of the most fantastically corrupt civil services in the country. Its workforce is ghost worker laden to the tone of 40%. Attempts made by previous administrations to right this trend has always gone over the bar and met stiff resistant. The processes are either intentionally scuttled, compromised or government lacking the political will to implement submitted report. Upon assumption into office, the first step of the governor was to make sure, these ghosts are sent back to their graves to rest in peace. Initially, it felt like it would be business as usual, but for the determination and doggedness, the process would have been jettisoned owing to pressure emanating from various quarters to outright condemnation and attack on the governor’s personality by perceived beneficiaries of the long term largess. Kogi state wouldn’t have had it better. Within a short while, it is expected that the practical steps and approach of this young governor, would begin to yield positively for the people of Kogi state. At the moment as I write, the young governor has ordered the payment of all outstanding salaries owned civil servants as promised by him that he would not carry over any payment into the incoming year.
Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. states “One of the great liabilities of history is that all too many people fail to remain awake through great periods of social change. Every society has its protectors of status quo and its fraternities of the indifferent who are notorious for sleeping through revolutions. Today, our very survival depends on our ability to stay awake, to adjust to new ideas, to remain vigilant and to face the challenge of change.”
Succinctly put, age in politics is a serious and important yardstick for performance and achieving results. There is the power to go the extra mile, there is the ability to think outside the box, the brain is fully functional at its maximum and there is the adventure or venturing to do things in a different way. It is believed that only unserious people would do a process over and over failing expecting different results. Except there is a daring breakaway from the past logics that have failed, there can be no forward movement. It takes a daring and adventurous young man to get result in the multi-tasking society that we are in and that’s why the young governor is faing the tide. No wonder shakepsre said, there is a tide “There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures”
This is a metaphorical expression, the use of which we often find in literature and everyday life. In our lives, we get ebbs and flows; however, we, sometimes, are unable to recognize whether the tide is an opportunity or an obstacle. It is up to us how we avail it as an opportunity or an obstacle. An elderly person can give this wise suggestion to the younger ones, as it contains beauty of thought about availing themselves of the opportunity. It only takes a young man to take action because he has the strength and abilities.
It takes courage and strength to face the tide, if Kogi must progress, it needs to support this 41 years old. He has the “can-do” mien. He leads from the front and not the back.
His unscheduled visits to many of the states ministries and parastatals, presents a man who does not sit down in his office and work by the reports submitted to his desk by his appointees. Rather he goes out to inspect and supervises so as to rake in, first hand information about happing in his domain.
Finally, the 41 year old governor has a penchant for the people of Kogi state. Wherever he finds himself, he puts off the toga of executiveness then mingles with his people. No wonder, during the Edo gubernatorial elections held in the month of September, Yahaya Bello was often times found in the cluster of his people at Igarra, Auchi, Uromi etc. He repeated, the same act was repeated during the Ondo election that found the young governor yet again in the midst of his people in areas like Owo. It takes one who has the love of his people and humility bto seek out for them wherever he finds himself.
For the first time since the creation of Kogi state, Kogi just got it self a complete leader, the onus lies on the people to give him the much needed support to him so he can deliver, because he has all the impetus to do so, like he has replicated in Edo and Ondo respectfully.
Williams Charles Oluwatoyin
Is a Media and Communications Consultant.
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