Is there anything the African Union (AU) can do to prevent political instability linked to the extension of presidential term limits? This will be one of the questions asked by observers and participants at the upcoming 25th AU summit in Johannesburg from 7–15 June.

Bids by incumbents to run for a third term as head of state, regardless of whether the relevant constitution imposes term limits or not, have created an atmosphere of potential conflict in a number of African countries.

Violent protests in Burundi

The current crisis in Burundi, where protests against the candidacy of President Pierre Nkurunziza in the upcoming elections are ongoing, is an example of what can happen when leaders refuse to step down. Dozens of people have been killed and thousands have fled to Tanzania due to the violence, which was compounded by a failed coup attempt on 14 May. The presidential elections planned for 26 June could still be postponed, but Burundi was plunged into chaos by a situation that the international community was clearly unable to prevent.

The current crisis in Burundi is an example of what can happen when leaders refuse to step down

International organisations such as the United Nations raised the alarm in the middle of last year, based on their own interpretation of Burundi’s constitution, when it became clear that Nkurunziza was determined to stand for re-election.

Article 96 of the constitution states that the president is elected by universal suffrage with the first mandate renewable once, thereby limiting the presidency to two mandates. However, because Burundi’s constitution came about after years of civil war, the drafters included article 302, which states that the first post-transition president should be elected through an indirect vote in Parliament. Nkurunziza and the ruling CNDD-FDD now insist that the first presidential term (2005–2010) does not count as a first term, since Nkurunziza was elected by a vote of Parliament and not a popular vote.

Meanwhile, the Arusha peace agreement, which ended the civil conflict in Burundi, states very clearly that the president should only serve two terms of five years each. Most international observers and the opposition believe that the constitution should be read within the framework of the Arusha Accords. The accords are also referenced in the preamble of the constitution.

AU preventative diplomacy

Since the start of the crisis, the AU has been praised for its proactive stance. AU Commissioner for Peace and Security Smail Chergui visited Burundi several times in 2014 and 2015. AU Commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma also travelled to the country in March this year, before the attempted coup. She subsequently made a strong statement calling for the elections to be postponed. She said in an interview that, according to most interpretations, Burundi’s constitution does not provide for a third presidential term. Dlamini-Zuma also said the AU could not send observers to the elections given the current atmosphere of violence and with refugees fleeing the country.

The 15-member Peace and Security Council (PSC) has met several times since the beginning of the protests to discuss the situation in Burundi. Burundi is a member of the Council and was elected for two years in 2014. On 14 May, at its most recent meeting on Burundi, the PSC expressed its deep concern over the situation and emphasised ‘the AU’s responsibilities as guarantor of the 2000 Arusha Agreement for peace and reconciliation in Burundi’. The AU also ‘underlines its determination to fully assume its role and to take all measures that the situation in Burundi requires, in accordance with its mandate’. The PSC’s statement further calls for dialogue and consensus on finding ‘a lasting political solution’ under the auspices of the AU and the East African Community, which has been seized of the situation in Burundi.

Since the start of the crisis, the AU has been praised for its proactive stance

On 9 May the AU sent a high-level delegation– chaired by former Togolese prime minister Edem Kodjo, who is a member of the Panel of the Wise, and including former Senegalese foreign minister Ibrahima Fall – to Burundi. The delegation has up to now failed to either kick-start the dialogue called for by the PSC or persuade Nkurunziza to renounce his candidature.

The PSC statement of 14 May also mentions the deployment of human rights observers to Burundi to ‘report violations of human rights and international humanitarian law’.

In hindsight, could the AU have done better? AU insiders say that in this case, the organisation’s hands were tied because of the reluctance on the part of heads of state to intervene before the crisis escalated. ‘We asked the heads of state over and over to do something about Burundi, but no-one wanted to,’ explains a high-ranking AU diplomat. Now, it seems too late and the situation is in the hands of Burundians.

Lessons from Burkina Faso

At the end of last year, violence also broke out in Burkina Faso because former president Blaise Compaoré insisted on a referendum in an attempt to change the constitution to provide for a third presidential term. Compaoré was ousted through popular protests just before parliamentarians could vote on holding the referendum. The AU threatened to suspend Burkina Faso for two weeks following the overthrow of Compaoré in early November 2014. The PSC restored the country’s membership to the AU on 17 November after an interim civilian-led government was nominated.

The way the AU handled the crisis in Burkina Faso raised many questions. It was pointed out at the time that stronger conflict-prevention mechanisms were needed in cases where observers and the international community agreed that violence was almost inevitable.

Are there any lessons from the situations in Burundi and Burkina Faso for similar cases in other African countries? They include the following:

• In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, supporters of President Joseph Kabila are advocating that he should be allowed to stand for election in 2016. He came to power in 2001 after his father died and was elected twice, in 2006 and 2011.
   
• In the Republic of Congo, ruling party members are also calling for a possible extended mandate for President Denis Sassou-Nguesso. He has been in power twice – first from 1979 to 1992, and again from 1997.
   
• In Rwanda, President Paul Kagame has also not indicated whether he plans to step down when his term expires in 2016. He has been president of Rwanda since 2000. Some of Kagame’s supporters have started a campaign to change the constitution to allow him another term, while the opposition is firmly opposed to this change.

What can be done?

One possible avenue is a statutory agreement among AU member states that limits presidential terms to two mandates. This could be similar to the Lomé Agreement of 2000, which condemns unconstitutional changes of government. As with the Lomé Agreement, this would apply only to current situations and would not be backdated.

Are there any lessons from the situations in Burundi and Burkina Faso for similar cases in other African countries?

However, given the practice of decision-making by consensus within the AU, this is unlikely in the short term. On 19 May such a proposal was in fact put to the heads of state of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) at its meeting in Accra, Ghana. According to reports, the motion was opposed by The Gambia and Togo. The Gambia’s leader, Yaya Jammeh, has been in power since 1994 and is now serving his 4th term in office. In Togo, President Faure Gnassingbé was controversially re-elected for a third term earlier this year, amid street protests against his candidacy. There are no term limits in Togo’s constitution and Gnassingbé’s father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, ruled the country for 38 years until his death in 2005.

ECOWAS is one of the few regional organisations that have rejected incumbents’ manipulation of constitutions in an attempt to prolong their mandates. In 2009 ECOWAS sanctioned Niger after former president Mamadou Tandja suspended Parliament and then won a referendum to change the constitution, scrapping term limits.

Many other African heads of state, including the AU’s current chairperson, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe, are unlikely to support a motion for a binding restriction on term limits. ‘The best we can hope for is for those heads of states to stand up in a closed session and tell the others not to do it [stand for a third term],’ a senior AU diplomat said in Addis Ababa.

Even this will be difficult to pull off, AU insiders say, since there are not many heads of state who will be willing to risk such a bold move.

The AU’s early warning and preventative diplomacy, together with pressure from the international community, is likely to be the only tool available to the continental institution to prevent more crises from erupting. Pressure is likely to be applied to heads of state, behind closed doors, by peers and non-African donor countries. In the case of Burundi, United States Secretary of State John Kerry asked that Burundi’s constitution be respected and Belgium withdrew election funding, but this did not dissuade Nkurunziza.

Civil society movements across Africa, however, have taken a strong stance on the issue of term limits. Protest action in Burundi is still not showing signs of abating, despite the strong response from the government.

credit link:  http://www.issafrica.org/pscreport/situation-analysis/third-term-bids-a-threat-to-stability

The article was first published by The Institute for Security Studies (http://www.issafrica.org) and is republished with permission  granted to www.oasesnews.com