It was whispered in the corridors of the Sandton Convention Centre, muttered under his breath by a former president and referred to (jokingly?) by Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe. However, at this week's African Union (AU) Summit, the third-term bids by Africa's presidents – one of the major threats to stability on the continent – remained the elephant in the room.

The 25th AU Summit, which ended in Johannesburg earlier this week, was overshadowed by the debacle around Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and the failure of South Africa to carry out an arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court. Al-Bashir - who incidentally has been in power for 26 years - flew back to his country on Monday 15 June.

In the run-up to the summit, observers and analysts said a strong statement by AU leaders about limiting presidential terms in Africa could go a long way to avert political instability on the continent. In countries like Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Republic of Congo and Rwanda, the uncertainty around term limits, and the determination by opposition and civil society to fight against third terms, have become cause for concern.

Third-term bids remain the elephant in the room

Speculation around possible action by AU leaders came after the tabling of such a resolution during a summit meeting of the Economic Community of West African States in Ghana last month. The proposal was shot down, reportedly by the leaders of Togo and the Gambia, but the fact that it was tabled indicated that this is not just a pipe dream.

Expectations that a decision would emerge from the Johannesburg summit were also raised when a number of leaders, including South African President, Jacob Zuma, and AU Commission Chairperson, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, spoke out strongly about the issue of Burundi's presidential term limits. Burundi has been plunged into violence due to President Pierre Nkurunziza's bid to run for a third term, having served as president from 2005 – 2010 and again from 2010 – 2015.

The current situation in Burundi was high on the agenda of the 15-member AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) that met at the heads-of-state level on 13 June, on the eve of the AU Assembly.

As delegates waited for the meeting, Burundi's former president Pierre Buyoya, currently the AU Special Representative for Mali, was asked what he thought about the third-term bid and almost inaudibly said: 'I don't agree with this business'. He added that he has a responsibility to speak out as one of the signatories of the Arusha agreement, which put an end to his presidency in 2003. 'If we carry on like this, we will return to civil war,' he warned ominously. But Buyoya was not on the podium to speak, and other leaders at the gathering didn’t hear his warning.

It is not, however, as if the AU hasn’t tried to avert a crisis in Burundi. The AU and the PSC have been lauded for their strong stance on Burundi and insist on the role of the AU as a guarantor of the Arusha Agreement, which clearly limits presidential terms in Burundi to two. At the meeting on 13 June, the PSC refrained from speaking about the term limits, but called for agreement amongst role-players in the country.

African leaders need to speak out decisively against third-term bids

In its statement following the meeting, the PSC called for the discussions to focus on 'the measures to be taken to create conditions conducive to the organisation of free, fair, transparent and credible elections' as well as 'on all the matters on which they disagree'. Still no mention of term limits. However, in his press conference on the last day of the summit, AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, Smaïl Chergui, said the discussions in Burundi should include 'everything', including freedom of expression, human rights 'and the presidential third-term bid'. So someone did say it.

The PSC communiqué also calls for human rights observers, as well as military experts, to be sent to Burundi to oversee the disarming of militias and to ensure free and fair elections. The ink was not yet dry on the PSC's statement when the Nkurunziza government rejected these calls saying it has its own observers and its security forces are more than capable of ensuring the safety of citizens during elections. According to a statement, quoted by Radio France International, the government said the dates for the elections, 29 June for legislative elections and 15 July for presidential polls, are non-negotiable.

Clearly, the government in Burundi is hell-bent on defying the AU in the name of sovereignty. The ball is now in the court of the mediators – and there are many. According to the PSC communiqué the AU, the United Nations, the East African Community and the Intergovernmental Conference on the Great Lakes Region, will oversee the talks.

The inability of the AU to stop the president of Burundi's third-term bid doesn't augur well for its role in other potential crises. David Zounmenou, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, warned earlier that civil disobedience against third-term bids could be one of the key reasons for instability on the continent in the next few months. 'African leaders need to speak out decisively against third-term bids because of the threat of instability,' he told a briefing in the run-up to the summit. 'If they don’t do that, citizens will take the law in their own hands.'

Zounmenou says the AU has normative frameworks, such as the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, which can promote good governance and the respect for constitutions on the continent. This charter is now being used by the PSC in its statement calling for free and fair elections in Burundi.

No AU decision is going to change Burundi’s current crisis anytime soon

Zounmenou said the situation in Burkina Faso at the end of 2014 is a clear manifestation of what can happen when leaders cling to power. Former president Blaise Compaoré was ousted by street protests after he tried to change the constitution to extend his term limit. The AU has been involved in the transition in Burkina Faso, and a meeting of the international contact group on Burkina Faso took place on the margins of the summit. International partners and Burkina Faso’s neighbours have criticised a law barring members of the former ruling party – who supported Compaore’s third-term bid – of running for elections in October.

Ruling parties elsewhere on the continent who are supporting third-term bids by their presidents, in places like the DRC and the Republic of Congo, will certainly be watching the process in Burkina Faso closely. In Rwanda, supporters of President Paul Kagame have also been gathering signatures to campaign for a third term for Kagame, who did not attend the Johannesburg summit, and who has been in power since 2000.

Apart from the talk in the corridors, and the very brief reference to Burundi’s third-term conundrum by Chergui, the only other official reference to the debate came from Mugabe, the current AU Chairperson.

During his opening address, Mugabe made a point of rejecting presidential term limits – another idea imposed by outsiders that will be 'a yoke around our necks'. 'In Europe they don’t have two terms, so if people want you to stay on, why not?' The 91-year old Zimbabwean president, however, then admonished his fellow African leaders who 'cause fights' by saying 'my first term doesn’t count', a clear reference to Nkurunziza.

'Let us learn to be brotherly and principled and refuse to cause trouble for our people,' Mugabe concluded. In Burundi, regrettably, there is already trouble, and no AU decision is going to change that soon.

credit link:  http://www.issafrica.org/iss-today/what-happened-to-the-third-term-debate

The article was first published by The Institute for Security Studies (http://www.issafrica.org) and is republished with permission  granted to www.oasesnews.com