The New Year is just by the corner but few Nigerians are holding their breath on what the brand new year would bring. Quite honestly, 2014 is a loaded pack of activities especially in the political front against the backdrop of predictions by doomsday foreign alarmists who had earlier foretold the disintegration of Nigeria in 2015.
However, recent development in the polity may have given cause for concern to many observers of political trend in the country. For instance, in the economic front, the Federal Government had earlier announced unequivocally that the citizens should brace up for a harsher economic climate in the year. It cited among other things, the dwindling fortunes of the global price of crude oil as the cause of the ugly development.
To this end, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, took the country on a lamentable memory lane of 1980’s Nigeria, when she hurriedly put in place, a number of austerity measures to cushion the effect of the impending apocalypse.
it thus appears that a combination of multiplying effects of the proposed austere times in 2015, especially in the areas of impending labour unrest and civil disobedience in an election year, will also shape the events of the year.
Despite the gloomy picture of the economy in 2015, what appears the defining characteristic of the epochal year remains the 2015 general elections as the single most important event that will determine how Nigerians will fared.
As would be expected, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which is already in the eyes of a storm, is also faced with the onerous duty of midwifing a free, fair and credible election in the face of daunting challenges facing the commission ahead of the 2015 polls.
This is perhaps because of the fear of possible disenfranchisement of many eligible Nigerians largely due to growing number of Internally Displaced Persons in the troubled parts of North Eastern Nigeria on the one hand, and the glaring inadequacies that characterized the just concluded Permanent Voters Cards exercise.
The Attahiru Jega-led electoral commission will also be making history as first INEC chairman to hold two elections back-to-back since the First Republic. But how the commission he leads performs the feat will go a long way to shape the event of 2015.
This is because INEC would be conducting elections for legislators at the state assemblies, the two chambers of the National Assembly and for governors of about 30 states of the federation as a test case of string of successes it recorded in some states where staggered elections were held recently.
The icing of the cake is no doubt the presidential election which will come up on February 14, 2015
Perhaps, it is the relevance of the presidential election in the lives of Nigerians who are presently grappling with comatose economy that INEC even prioritized it on the elections timetable.
Already the battle line has been drawn between the candidates of the two main political parties: the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan running under the platform of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Major General Muhammadu Buhari (Rtd) of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who will be contesting for a record fourth time.
Buhari, who became the presidential flag bearer of the country’s most viable opposition party since independence, would be going to the crucial election with personal integrity and anti- corruption high moral standard.
On the other hand, the incumbent President Jonathan has on his trail, series of his modest achievements if any, in the first stanza of ruling the country to speak for him.
Many have expressed the view that the 2015 presidential election is going to be the fiercest since the return of democracy in 1999 noting that the two combatants are no strangers to the presidential race being the major contenders in 2011. As a matter of fact, Buhari has been variously described as a ‘professional presidential candidate’
But between 2011 and now, a lot of water had passed under the bridge as Nigerians more than ever before, appeared to have been politically wiser not to toil with the choice of their leaders as witnessed in the just concluded primaries across the political divides which produced quite a number of upsets.
The acrimonious and flawed primaries conducted in many PDP controlled states have impacted negatively on the fortunes of the party even as it has become practically impossible for PDP to reconcile the aggrieved party members many of whom had dumped the party for new platforms. The above scenarios may surely shape the politics of 2015.
While a school of thought believes that the country is in dire need of change from the perceived lackluster performance of the present administration, others are of the opinion that the achievements of the PDP administration in the past four years are enough to earn the president a second term even as Jonathan had earlier promised to spend just one term in office.
Buhari had also toed similar path in 2011 after he lost the election when he openly declared that he would be too old in 2015 to run again so much the similarity between the two frontline presidential hopefuls.
What may also shape the politics of 2015 is the dust generated by the face- off between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and his political son, President Jonathan which came to the forefront through the exchange of letters between the two leaders.
Obasanjo through the caustic letter had shown that the President is on his own if he dares going for a second term against the controversial unwritten Memoranda of Understanding between them which Obasanjo claimed President Jonathan has reneged.
It would thus be a strange scenario to see a Jonathan without his political godfather crisscrossing the country during the campaigns.
However what stood as President Jonathan Archilles heels till date is the wave of insurgency in the country which came to the feverish pitch in the past four years and the inability of the governments to combat it frontally while it lasted.
The abduction of over 200 school girls in a secondary school in Chibok, Borno State early last year by the dreaded Boko Haram sect has rattled Aso Rock to no end while the opposition APC is now basking in the euphoria of general state of insecurity in the country as a campaign mission statement.
Added to this is the continuous loss of lives, property and territories on a daily basis to the insurgents which has further raised doubt if election will hold in such places.
The sect had killed over 10,000 Nigerians in 2014 and analysts have noted that it is gradually turning from an insurgent group to a separatist and secessionist group with its latest strategy of capturing some towns in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa States.
Deputy senate President, Ike Ekeremadu had recently remarked during the senate’s debate on the threat to Nigeria’s sovereignty by the insurgents that Nigeria is at war.
He said: “Nigeria is at war and the constitution says no election in war situation. Democracy is not working in north east and senate should do everything to restore security and democracy there”
Ekeremadu may have been stating the obvious that the restoration of peace in those troubled areas are germane to the 2015 general elections.
Also corroborating the senate Deputy President, the INEC boss last month, declared that unless security situation changes in the zone, the commission would not conduct elections in the affected states.
He said: “It is my hope that the challenges in the north east will be resolved before 2015 if the security is such that we cannot hold election, then we may need to fall back on the law to suspend or postpone it”.
Jega added that election security has become a lasting issue facing the management of elections in Nigeria. His words: “Several security threats now characterize the electoral process. These include physical attacks on INEC staff and facilities, attacks on security personnel on election duty, misuse of security orderlies by politicians, attacks on political opponents, cyber- attacks targeting INEC’s databases especially the register of voters and violence at campaigns
We are concerned about this because even if the management of elections meets the highest standards, in so far as the contestants are unwilling to play by the rules, there will be grave problems”
What the INEC boss failed to mention is the rising waves of post- election violence which can be more devastating if allowed. The development has led to a recent call by Governor Sule Lamido, the Jigawa State governor for a written pact between the two leading presidential flag bearers to sign a no violence agreement during and after the election had been won or lost.
