Monday, 25 November 2024

Nigeria : The 5 Biggest Losers if Jonathan Wins

 #NigeriaDecides is the hashtag to use on social networks as Nigeria gets into the final gear that brings up the election D-day. 
While presidential debates are still in progress, every other formality has been finalized - or is nearing completion. Already the court has ruled against the use of soldiers for election purposes by the federal government and today Nigeria waits with bated breath for the ruling on the certificates and credentials of a key presidential candidate, APC's Muhammadu Buhari.

The jury is still out as to the eventual winner of the elections (it is still early and both Jonathan and Buhari are favored to win or lose, depending on which political 'analyst' you read), and political commentators are reaching the final frenzy that is expected to escalate further. While the ordinary Nigerian takes keen interest in the politics that determines the leadership for the next ten years, there are key players for whom anxiety and panic may be in order. Depending on where the axe falls, this may be the election that makes or mars things.

We have considered the biggest stakeholders and their contribution to the political discussions in recent times, evaluated their stakes in this game and present to you the five (potentially) biggest losers if president Jonathan braves the odds and reclaims the iron throne for himself despite the formidable opposition:
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1. Obasanjo:
The ex-president of Nigeria will have some awkward diplomacy to embark on if Jonathan manages to hold on to Aso Rock despite his open campaign against the GEJ-led government. Obasanjo, himself a power broker, realizes that his words hold sway in the political climate of Nigeria thus his actions will be judged as deliberately trying to truncate Presiden Jonathan's lifespan on the throne.

'Eating the humble pie' may come to mind at this point.
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2. Amaechi:
The Rivers state governor and director of the APC presidential campaign has stuck his neck out farther than most people in the APC.

Political analysts would suggest that a Jonathan win will end Amaechi's political career (and even business opportunities) in Nigeria. However - in the spirit of defections, one can never totally seal the fate of any politician.
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3. Buhari:
The curtains - whether he likes it or not - will be closing for the general if he doesn't hit gold this time. The 72 year old veteran will have to make it or break it this time, or it's the end of the political road for him. If the votes are counted and President Jonathan comes out on top, a million court cases may not suffice to wrest power from the fist of the genial Ijaw man.
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4. Tinubu:
The jagaban is another man who has dyed his agbada the deep hue of the APC party, and if Buhari falls short of the kingdom, the buzzards will be coming for his wingman.

As repayment for his hounding the president through his own rejuvenated party, the president may chance upon the bright idea to discredit Tinubu further. But then again - President Jonathan is famous for being a 'live and let live' president who isn't keen on visiting his vengeance on his antagonistic power brokers (unless it gets a tad personal, as in the case of Ibori.)

Now if President Jonathan were Obasanjo....
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5. Emir Sanusi:
One might be inclined to argue that the emir is removed from national politics and as such none of the aftermaths of the election will matter to him, but the fact remains that Sanusi's words live after him and there is still room for maneuverability - accusations and counter-accusations - as we suspect that the OPEC president and petroleum minister Alison-Madueke may have a trick up her sleeve to serve the ex-CBN governor.

If it is revealed that Sanusi's accusations were not facts but politically-motivated polemics, the media would swoop in on it along with the international community.

There is also the possibility of Sanusi's removal as emir, if the former emir's son can be persuaded to show interest in the seat and if the recently-reelected President Jonathan has the ears of the new governor.

- JUSTIN IRABOR

 

 


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