Many factors aided the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the defeat of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the Southwest geo-political zone at the governorship elections. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU writes on the epic battles, issues that shaped the contests and lessons from the elections.

Southwest Govs.

It was a fierce battle. And it was fought on all sides with vigour, energy and resources. During the campaigns, it was as if the zone was preparing for a major war. Indeed, it was an epic battle for the soul of the most politically conscious and sophisticated region, the Southwest. The All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its allies – the Accord, Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Unity party of Nigeria (UPN), participated in what could best be described, a popularity test. At the close of the polls, the wheat was separated from the chaff.

The general elections, according to observers, were free and fair. Many gladiators escaped defeat narrowly. Some others were not so lucky, they were humbled. Across the three states-Lagos, Ogun and Oyo – where the governorship election held, the margin was not wide. There were a lot of surprises. Candidates that were perceived as weak contenders waxed strong on poll day. The so-called power brokers fell during the exercise. The contest was keen, an indication that electoral democracy has become much more competitive. For the first time, the people took ownership of the process. The lessons of the parliamentary and governorship polls will remain instructive. They may guide the zone in its preparations for future elections.

The outcome of the poll heralded a new dawn in the Southwest. Indeed, for the first time, four states in the region-Lagos, Oyo, Ogun and Osun – which had loathed mainstream politics, or put succinctly, alliance with the conservative centre, is aligning with the centre under the banner of progressive politics. This has implications for inter-governmental relations in an atmosphere of cooperative federalism. The era of federal/state bickering may be replaced by a gradual movement to political understanding. However, to enlarge its coast in the region, APC has an unfinished business. Although the party made further in-road into Ondo State, where it won two of the senatorial seats, it met a brick wall in Ekiti, where it was roundly defeated by the PDP at the presidential, National and State Assembly polls.

Between 2011 and 2011, the perception of the Southwest about President Goodluck Jonathan has changed. The people of the region were stunned by his inept administration. The poor performance cut across all sectors. To them, the government has not tackled corruption, addressed unemployment and the issue of power. Rather, it has encouraged waste, inefficiency, thuggery and impunity. Consequently, when Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and other compatriots mooted the idea of a mega party to challenge the PDP, there was enthusiasm in the region.

The four governors have an arduous task ahead of them. While fraternising with the Federal Government, based on party affiliation, the regional integration project they have subscribed to must not be abandoned.

Lagos

Since 1999, the PDP and the progressive bloc have been locked in a battle of supremacy in Lagos. The Federal Government had always wanted to capture the state, but at every election, the bid has been futile. The recent governorship election was not an exception. The PDP candidate, Mr. Jimi Agbaje, a pharmacist, fought gallantly. But, he lost to the APC standard bearer, Akinwunmi Ambode, a chartered accountant. The opposition, built on its previous record of failure. In 1999, its candidate, Chief Dapo Sarumi, was defeated by Senator Bola Tinubu of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). In 2003, Tinubu also defeated the PDP flag bearer, the late Mr. Funso Williams, an engineer. In 2007, the PDP candidate, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, crashed before Governor Babatunde Fashola of the defunct Action Congress (AC). Also, in 2011, the PDP candidate, Dr. Ade Dosunmu, could not fly. He lost to Fashola, who ran on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

Ahead of the recent general elections, the crisis-ridden PDP chapter, reflected on its failed attempts to capture power. Its leader, Commodore Bode George (rtd), took Agbaje to Aso Villa, to sell him to the President.

The Afenifere chieftain, who had earlier rejected overtures to defect to the PDP, shortly after the demise of Williams, finally agreed to run on the platform of the party. The PDP has always been a divided house. To encourage Agbaje, there was a sort of camouflage reconciliation among the warring chieftains. Unlike the APC, Agbaje emerged as a candidate at a rancorous primary election, which Obanikoro described as a sham. But, the party was united by the pumping of money into the chapter by the Presidency.

Agbaje is a people’s man and Lagosians took him seriously. He is a polished politician; urbane, nice and sociable. The pharmacist is brilliant; he is a good speaker, knowledgeable and widely perceived as a man of integrity and honour. But, according to analysts, Agbaje ran on a wrong platform, which mocked his antecedent as a committed progressive. This called attention to his pedigree. Those who voted for him, did so on merit, not because of party affiliation. His party, to many Lagosians, was not appealing.

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The PDP was desperate to capture Lagos. Before the presidential poll, it employed four methods. President Goodluck Jonathan secured the endorsement of the polarised regional group, Afenifere. But, reality later dawned on him that he struck a deal with a section of the pan-Yoruba socio-political group that could not successfully mobilise support for a councillorship candidate in any part of the region. Also, the PDP-controlled Federal Government mobilised both factions of the ethnic militia, the Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC), led by Dr Fredrick Faseun and Gani Adams, to terrorise Lagos for eight hours. Irked by the show of shame, former Chief of Defence Staff, Gen. Alani Akinrinade, said that the sponsors of the perfidy were on the way to doom. The third strategy was the ethnic card, which has now created a division in Lagos, with its implications for peaceful co-existence among the diverse tribes. The PDP succeeded in inciting the Igbos against their hosts by inventing the highly divisive and potentially provocative slogan of ‘Lagos is no man’s land.’ In the opinion of observers, Agbaje also made a mistake of playing ethnic politics, unlike in 2007 when he dwelt on issues. Thus, PDP promised Lagos Ndigbo six commissioners and an Eze Ndigbo of Lagos, which would have been very difficult for Agbaje to fulfill, if he had won the race. The fourth was the massive financial inducement of the electorate.

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The party was more desperate, shortly after it lost the presidential election. The PDP peeped into the future, noting that it would need money to play the role of the opposition. It therefore, resolved to capture Lagos, Akwa Ibom and Rivers states. But, the plot failed in Lagos and its victory in the two oil-rich states remained controversial.

Lagosians were yearning for change. Therefore, they supported the presidential ambition of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. Besides, the struggle for change at the centre began from Lagos. The crusade was led by Tinubu. He was the last man standing in 2003. Under his leadership, the progressives reclaimed other Southwest states, although Ondo and Ekiti were re-captured.

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In the last 16 years, Lagos has also been building on the solid foundation laid by Asiwaju Tinubu. In 1999, the former governor inherited a state struggling for survival. But, through creative financial engineering, Lagos State jerked up its internally generated revenue. Tinubu also laid the foundation for infrastructure battle in the Centre of Excellence. He was succeeded by a competent aide, Governor Babatunde Fashola, who built on the legacies. Therefore, when the APC family led by Tinubu, the pathfinder, and Fashola, the actualiser, called for the sustainability of the progress made so far through a government of continuity, Lagosians believed in them and in the standard bearer, Ambode, the consolidator. The PDP propaganda, falsehood and campaign of calmuny against the APC national leader and the ruling party failed. What gained prominence was the counter-argument that Lagos was not ready for experimentation under an untested politician and a party with no attraction.

Now, Lagos is in the mainstream. The state suffered for 16 years under an unfriendly Federal Government. It is believed that the new federal/state parley will herald many dividends of democracy for the city-state.

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Oyo

Oyo State became a PDP state in 2003, following the political earthquake that swept through the Southwest. For eight years, the Pacesetter State suffered the indignity of being ruled by uncaring politicians. But, there was a clean break from the past when Governor Abiola Ajimobi assumed the reins in 2011. Thuggery, violence, arson and disruption of the state by road transport workers were the order of the day. There was no peace. Also, godfatherism was enthroned. Development and progress were at a standstill. The hand of the government was heavy on the state. Corruption was rife. The state was in chaos.

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The former governor, Rashidi Ladoja, and his godfather, the late Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu, parted ways, following disagreement over the sharing of the state revenue. Ladoja resisted the suggestion that his benefactor deserved a portion of the security vote. Hell was let loose. His administration was full of tension. The atmosphere was tense. It was not conducive to good governance. Ladoja lost his seat. He was replaced by his deputy. By the time he regained it, time was running out.

His successor, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, also ran a controversial government. It was obvious that the state was fed up with the PDP. The people yearned for change. Their prayer was answered in 2011. Ajimobi defeated Alao-Akala. He inherited a heavy burden. But, he swung into action. The financial loopholes were blocked. It was obvious that Senator Ajimobi cannot be intimidated by unscrupulous elements. He took charge of the state without any recourse to a godfather.

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In four years, the governor turned the state into a huge construction site. His urban renewal projects have been hailed beyond the targeted cities. Also, he has fought the infrastructure battle across the nooks and corners of the state. A risk taker, the governor also stepped on toes in the interest of the state. Under him, there was no room for personal aggrandisement.

However, he could not curtail strife and rancour in the ruling party. Ambitious compatriots, including Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, defected to the Accord, in protest. Even, elder statesman Chief Michael Koleoso decided to take a back seat. But, the governor maintained intimacy with the people who enjoyed the dividends of democracy under his administration. His foes went to town to twist the objective of the urban renewal project, saying that it was meant to deprive the traders of their ware points. Others said that a regime of unbearable taxation was underway. There were other fabrications by his detractors. But, the governor weathered the storm.

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Ajimobi ran an incorruptible and transparent government. Unlike those before him, he did not sponsor thuggery and hooliganism. There was no divide and rule among road transport workers. Under his administration, peace returned to Ibadan and its environs.

Ajimobi made the traditional institutions the cornerstone of his administration. The parley with royal fathers – the Alaafin of Oyo, Oba Lamidi Adeyemi, the Soun of Ogbomoso, Oba Jimoh Oyewumi, and the Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Samuel Odulana Odugade – worked. Their children are commissioners in the state. The children of the Alaafin and the Soun were also APC House of Representatives candidates in their domains. Blood is thicker than water. The royal fathers are popular in their kingdoms. So, their subjects listened to them. Besides, the governor ran back to the leading lights in Ibadan, urging them to support his re-election bid. He got their endorsement.

The people started to compare Ajimobi administration with the previous administrations. He was adjudged a performer, despite the liabilities he inherited. A searchlight was beamed on Ladoja and Alao-Akala governments. It was discovered they performed below expectation. In particular, they perceived Alao-Akala as a controversial politician. The people were not impressed by new promises reeled out by the former governors to stage a comeback into Government House.

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Also, the APC has waxed stronger and Ladoja’s party, Accord, and the Labour Party (LP), on which Alao-Akala ran, were no match for the ruling party. The PDP was also in ruins. In fact, the PDP did not put its house in order. It has disintegrated, with Ladoja, Alao-Akala, Senator Teslim Folarin, and Seyi Makinde, who are chieftains of the party, working at cross purposes. The former Senate Leader was the PDP candidate. Makinde, a rich engineer, defected from the fold to run on the platform of the relatively unknown SDP. They were consumed by the clash of ego and ambitions.

At the presidential election, Oyo honoured the governor by voting for Gen. Buhari. His campaigns were also not in vain. The ruling party won the three senatorial seats, to the consternation of his rivals. The power brokers of yester-years were dusted at the poll. Reality dawned on them that they could only contend with past glory. However, the challenge before Ajimobi, whose re-election has broken the second term jinx, is how to manage the success, work hard, make the party one and implement a succession plan that will enable him hand over to a worthy successor.

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Ogun

The forces against the governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, were formidable. But, he is not strange to political battles. The people did not elect him in vain in 2011. Amosun has lived up to expectation by his giant strides across all sectors of the state economy. No governor has worked assiduously like him in the Gateway State. The testimonies are the new roads springing up across the state, the new classrooms, the hospitals and health care centres, and other social infrastructure. In particular, the roads and bridges in Shagamu, Ijebu-Ode, Abeokuta, Sango-Ota/Akute are signposts of successful infrastructure battles.

Royal fathers across the state have also testified to his financial re-engineering and judicious allocation of resources. Amosun, according to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, has performed, despite dwindling resources. Urging voters to vote wisely, the former President said their decision on poll day has implications for the state and the future of their children.

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But, as it turned out, performance was not the only factor that could guarantee victory. The governor campaigned vigorously to woo back voters, whose minds have been spoilt by sheer falsehood, fabrication and propaganda by his opponents.

Amosun’s main challengers were Gboyega Isiaka of the PDP and Senator Akin Odunsi of the SDP. But, it was clear that they could not match the APC candidate, who was miles ahead of them. But, the outcome of the senatorial poll jolted the APC. Its candidate, Dapo Abiodun, an influential businessman, crashed before the billionaire business mogul, Prince Buruji Kashamu of the PDP. Amosun has stepped on toes in the Ijebu-Remo axis, when he insisted that the commonwealth of the state should not be sold to godfathers. Therefore, they ganged up against his second term ambition.

Also, ahead of the polls, the rift in the APC could not be resolved, resulting in the defection of Senators Gbenga Obadara, Odunsi and Gbenga Kaka, the deputy governor, Hon. Segun Adesegun, and other members of the Osoba camp to the SDP. But, the outcome of the Ogun polls demystified Aremo Olusegun Osoba, a founding father of the APC, who deserted his original political family to embrace a new and strange platform. The SDP was unknown to the people. Across the three zones, it lacks formidable structures.

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The PDP was also a divided house. The cracks could not be mended before the polls. The effects of the pre-primary crisis robbed off on the party during the general elections. Also, Obasanjo’s exit from the PDP was a blow to the opposition party. To ordinary folks, Amosun was a performer. Therefore, he earned the mandate of the people for the second term on merit.

The governor has an unfinished business of re-uniting the ruling party, building on the achievement of his first term and reconciling with critical stakeholders in the state, despite their opposition to his re-election bid. With that, he will be magnanimous in victory.

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Source: THENATION

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