Nigeria 2015 elections are a few weeks away and seem set. Nothing in the past sixteen years can compare to the coming rumble in Africa’s largest political jungle. For the first time, the PDP has near equal match but still not equal. PDP is the party to beat and no one wins the victor without beating him real good. In order word, a close run and the verdict: PDP has not been beaten and so retains the title! This fact seems lost to APC strategists for otherwise they would not rest on Jonathan’s poor performance to take over the mantle. Indeed, a challenger must show superior capability potentials borne of superior visions.

Elections in Nigeria as in most of Africa are not like in Europe and America where public awareness is high and issues dominate with the added tendency to change a government that has lasted. In those parts, no party or individual dominates the political space for too long unlike in Africa where a man or a party can sit tight for donkey years.

In the last fifty years in the United States, neither the Republicans nor Democrats have won two terms of the presidency back to back. Similarly, Britain’s Whigs and Tories change the mantle maximum of twelve years. But the PDP has promised to keep the presidency for 50 years and has done sixteen and truth is that it can go the distance despite the poor performances. We shall visit PDP performance on another date.

Nigeria’s elections base on tripartite conspiracy: ethnicity, religion and economics. Majorly economics defined by power brokers and what they stand to gain or lose with one candidate against the other. It is never the case that public interests decide elections. Commentators have decried the lack of issues in Nigerian politics but it is more shifting the focus. Politicians talk about corruption, mass poverty, insecurity, impunity, unemployment and these are critical issues. But it is all talks without game plans and definite results.  

Corruption in Nigeria is endemic, pandemic and systemic. What is the level: Thirty, sixty per cent or what? You cannot deal with corruption in abstracts or mere personal integrity. No. A crook who has the figures and templates tells you he is going to fix the monster goes on to do it because he understands it. You need a game plan to cut corruption chains or system. Who does not know that the public service is corrupt; that national security is corrupt, that education and religions in Nigeria are deadly corrupt? Do we need committees to uncover their forms, levels and urgent need of eradication? Yes, corruption is a curable disease!   

Leave the corruption in religions aside. Instead let us visit the education institutions. How did we get to the point where applicants pay thousands of Naira in the name of acceptance fee? Can a sane mind justify applicants paying to see their results after examination fee? Who imagines applicants would not see results after sitting for examinations? Schools devise numerous means of extorting money which did not exist years ago: systemic corrupt practices.

So young people learn first hand that extortion is the game, that exploiting opportunities is all that matter, and then the foundation of corruption is firmly laid. This nation will not win any war against corruption by strengthening the ICPC, EFCC, the courts and the security services. If truth must be told, from the bottom to the top, these institutions are corruption ridden.   

Taking economic interests especially the millionaire and billionaire public servants and foreign stakeholders; there is no doubt who MUST win Nigeria 2015 elections! At this point, party is not the issue. Some APC sympathizers would vote PDP where they feel their economic interests are better protected by the latter.

Last weekend, the Jonathan Campaign team organized a fund raiser and over N21 billion was collected which is no where what the party is likely to put into the president’s bid. If we recall, the 2012 N800 billion oil subsidy scam went into PDP’s 2011 elections. Religious, traditional, women, youth, the media and opinion moulders and leaders shared in it. This time, it will not be less. Does the challenger ask the implications and possible escape?

Contradictory figures keep flying on poverty and unemployment in Nigeria. Basically, Nigeria does not have reliable data on any thing as part of a syndrome. Either figures are too high or they are too low. But what cannot be denied is that Nigeria has large army of extreme poverty and this nation has no excuse for mass poverty.

What are the implications and what does the challenger say and purpose to do?

Let me state that the challenger here is not the APC. The APC and the PDP are not much different. At best, they are the two sides of same coin. The challenger, however, is General Muhammadu Buhari, APC flag bearer in the 2015 elections. Buhari’s person and antecedents are established. He means well with unequal sense of mission, passion and knows the troubles with Nigeria. We all do but does he know Nigeria; what this nation that for decades has been dubbed great can and should be doing? For sure, Buhari knows there is no greatness in imitations; that greatness lies in originality.

In my book, Democracy For All, I tried to answer the basic questions about Nigeria. I published a letter in newspapers urging President Goodluck Jonathan to reinvent Nigeria. Therefore, I now tell General Buhari (rtd) what I told Mr. President months ago: Nigeria must turn the tide and start work on becoming great or fell deeper into ruins; that corruption and mass poverty are curable diseases, and that Nigeria can wipe mosquitoes in five years if we ever hope to deal with insecurity and impunity that have become pervasive.

After 1999, voter turn out has been dropping. As things stand today, more Nigerians will not bother coming out when elections start on February 14, 2015. The reason is that the elections have nothing for them; knowing that six months, one, two, three years after, it will be same old stories: corruption, poverty, unemployment, insecurity, scandalous fees and diseases.

Nigeria can wipe out mosquitoes under five years. That is better than building one health centre in every local government area in ten years. Nigeria is highly blessed; there is no excuse for mass poverty. Mass poverty is state’s creation and crime against humanity. Nigeria has not started and so there is so much work to do and no reason for unemployment!

The core duties of a leader are to inspire and empower the team and followers. For decades, nobody has inspired or empowered Nigerians. Yes, churches are inspiring members. Yes, there is God in heaven but there are leaders on earth. God had blessed the earth before humans came to existence. Now it lies with the leaders to show the way forward.

President Jonathan has huge followers; Buhari has too. Whether they are mercenary or blind armies make no difference: they both have resolute folks who see no wrong in their idols.

But Buhari’s army aided by Tinubu foot soldiers will not route Jonathan’s confederacy as things stand today. For Buhari to win, he must win convincingly. On paper he has but in reality, no! He needs redesign his strategies: inspire the nation and reverse the polarization everywhere. Buhari must give more voters reasons to come out and vote. Getting twenty percent who otherwise did not want to bother upstages the calculations. The less voter turn out, the better Jonathan chances but the more voter turn out, the more Buhari stands to win. Nigerians are disgusted and do not see any rainbow in the skyline. Can Buhari really show there is light at the end of the tunnel? That is his election swinger.

Buhari’s burdens are heavy but he can lighten them by leaving the past behind. His past electoral losses must be rested and reversed. He can and should campaign seriously in places he never did. He needs rewrite his blue-print. Nigeria needs a leader to unite the nation, inspire and empower the peoples. Nigeria needs paradigm shifts. The commonwealth must become common heritage and not the eternal reserves of a handful.

President Jonathan is more than good luck incarnate; he is the most powerful man in Africa. The PDP is not a party; it is the government of the Federal Republic and biggest economy in Africa.  On paper, Buhari is good. But in the jungles, bad guys often do better than the good guys.  

Finally, let me state that as a journalist I have had the honour of interviewing Buhari. I have yet to meet or read a more diligent, passionate, disciplined and devoted Nigerian leader.  

• Anyamele wrote from Lagos.